In July 29th, the novel coronavirus pneumonia (IATA), which was released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), released the global air cargo periodic report. The global air cargo market increased by 9.9% in June this year compared with the previous peak (June 2019). In the first half of the year, the growth rate of air freight soared to 8%, the strongest performance in the first half of the year since 2017 (the industry's annual freight demand increased by 10.2% year-on-year).

Affected by the novel coronavirus pneumonia, the monthly data in 2021 and 2020 were distorted. Unless otherwise stated, the year-on-year results of this paper are compared with the normal demand data in June 2019.

Global air cargo demand (calculated according to freight ton kilometers or "ctks") increased by 9.9% year-on-year in June 2019.

There are significant differences among regions. In June, North American Airlines increased by 5.9%. Middle East Airlines increased by 2.1%, European airlines by 1.6%, African Airlines by 0.5% and Asia Pacific Airlines by 0.3%. Latin American Airlines fell 0.5%.

The total capacity (calculated according to available tonne kilometers or "ACTKs") is still 10.8% lower than the previous level of COVID-19 (June 2019) due to the continued suspension of the airliner. The belly cabin capacity decreased by 38.9% compared with June 2019, partially offset by the 29.7% increase in the capacity of special cargo aircraft.

Potential economic growth and favorable supply chain status drive air cargo:

The stock to sales ratio in the United States is at an all-time low. It means that enterprises must replenish inventory quickly, usually by air freight.

Purchasing managers' index (PMIS) - a leading indicator of air cargo demand, indicating that business confidence, manufacturing output and new export orders are growing rapidly in most economies. A major shift from consumer goods to services has not yet been achieved.

Compared with container transportation, the cost competitiveness and reliability of air freight have been improved. The average price of air transportation relative to sea transportation has decreased significantly. The dispatch reliability of ocean shipping companies has also decreased. The reliability in May was about 40%, compared with 70 ~ 80% before the crisis.

"Novel coronavirus pneumonia is booming as the global economy continues to recover from the new crown pneumonia crisis," said Willy Walsh, director of the International Air Transport Association (Willie Walsh). The demand in the first half of the year was 8% higher than the pre crisis level. Air cargo has become the income lifeline of many airlines, and the closure of the border has seriously damaged the international air passenger transport business. It is worth mentioning that the strong performance of freight transportation in the first half of the year will continue. "

Air cargo market - June 2021

Regional performance in June

Compared with the same period in 2019, the international air cargo demand of Asia Pacific Airlines increased by 3.8% in June 2021. The international transport capacity of the region decreased by 19.8% compared with June 2019. Although the demand is still high, the regional growth is hindered due to the shortage of international transport capacity and the manufacturing PMI is not as strong as Europe and the United States.

Compared with June 2019, the international demand of North American Airlines increased by 23.4% in June 2021. Economic fundamentals and a well functioning supply chain continued to drive the growth of North American Airlines' cargo. Compared with June 2019, the international transport capacity decreased by 2.1%.

Compared with the same period in 2019, the international demand of European airlines increased by 6.6% in June 2021. In June 2021, the international transport capacity decreased by 16.2% compared with June 2019. European manufacturing PMI is very strong, and the market still drives the freight growth of European airlines.

The international freight volume of Middle East Airlines in June 2021 increased by 17.1% over June 2019, thanks to the strong performance of trade routes from the Middle East to Asia and from the Middle East to North America. Compared with the same period in 2019, the international transport capacity decreased by 9% in June.

The international freight volume of Latin American Airlines in June decreased by 22.9% compared with the same period in 2019, the weakest performance among all regions, and decreased month on month. The international transport capacity in June 2021 decreased by 28.4% compared with June 2019. The poor performance is mainly due to the loss of market share of airlines in other regions by local airlines.

Compared with the same period in 2019, the international freight demand of African Airlines increased by 33.5% in June this year. Although the growth rate is the highest in all regions, the cargo volume of African Airlines accounts for only 2% of the global cargo volume. In June, the international transport capacity decreased by 4.9% compared with the same period in 2019（ International Air Transport Association)

Source: China Civil Aviation News